How Long Will My Savings Last?
Last reviewed: January 2026
Find out how long your savings will last at any withdrawal rate, accounting for investment returns and inflation. This calculator runs entirely in your browser — your data stays private, and no account is required.
The core question in retirement planning is whether your money will outlive you or you will outlive your money. This depends on three variables: your withdrawal rate, your investment return, and inflation. Small changes in any of these have enormous long-term impact.
The 4% rule (from the Trinity Study) says a retiree can withdraw 4% of their portfolio in year one, then adjust for inflation annually, and have a 90%+ chance of the money lasting 30 years. This was based on a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. It is a guideline, not a guarantee — in bad sequence-of-returns scenarios (market crash early in retirement), even 4% can fail.
The order of investment returns matters enormously in retirement. A market crash in year 2 of retirement is far more damaging than the same crash in year 20. Strategies to manage this include holding 1–2 years of expenses in cash, maintaining a bond buffer, or using a dynamic withdrawal rate (spend less when markets are down).
| Savings | Monthly Withdrawal | 0% Return | 5% Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | $3,000 | 13.9 years | 21.5 years |
| $500,000 | $2,000 | 20.8 years | 50+ years |
| $1,000,000 | $4,000 | 20.8 years | 50+ years |
| $1,000,000 | $5,000 | 16.7 years | 30.3 years |
A savings drawdown calculator models how long your accumulated savings will last given a regular withdrawal rate, investment returns, inflation, and taxes. This is the central question of retirement planning — and the stakes are high. Outliving your money is consistently ranked as retirees' greatest financial fear, yet many enter retirement without ever modeling their drawdown trajectory. The answer depends on four interconnected variables: starting balance, annual withdrawal amount, investment return rate, and inflation rate.
| Starting Balance | Annual Withdrawal | Return Rate | Years Until Depleted |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | $25,000 (5%) | 5% | 28 years |
| $500,000 | $30,000 (6%) | 5% | 22 years |
| $750,000 | $30,000 (4%) | 5% | 42+ years |
| $1,000,000 | $40,000 (4%) | 5% | 40+ years |
| $1,000,000 | $50,000 (5%) | 5% | 30 years |
| $1,000,000 | $60,000 (6%) | 5% | 23 years |
*Assumes constant real return (return minus inflation). Actual results vary with market performance and inflation trajectory.
The 4% rule, derived from the Trinity Study, states that withdrawing 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement and adjusting that dollar amount for inflation each subsequent year has historically sustained a balanced portfolio (50/50 stocks and bonds) for at least 30 years in over 95% of historical periods. On a $1,000,000 portfolio, this means withdrawing $40,000 in year one, $41,200 in year two (assuming 3% inflation), and so on. The rule was groundbreaking because it provided a concrete, research-backed answer to the question of safe withdrawal rates.
However, the 4% rule has important limitations. It was calibrated to U.S. stock and bond returns from 1926–1995, a period that included generally declining interest rates and strong equity performance. Critics argue that current lower expected returns — driven by elevated equity valuations and historically low bond yields — may make 3.0–3.5% a safer initial withdrawal rate. Others point out that the 4% rule assumes rigid inflation adjustments regardless of portfolio performance, which can accelerate depletion during early-retirement bear markets (sequence-of-returns risk).
The order in which investment returns occur matters far more during drawdown than during accumulation. A retiree who experiences a 30% market decline in their first two years of retirement faces a dramatically different outcome than one who experiences the same decline 15 years in. This is because withdrawals during a down market permanently remove shares that cannot participate in the subsequent recovery. Two retirees with identical average returns over 30 years but different return sequences can end up with wildly different balances — one depleting their savings and the other leaving a substantial inheritance.
Strategies to mitigate sequence risk include maintaining 1–2 years of expenses in cash or short-term bonds (a "cash buffer" that avoids selling equities during downturns), reducing withdrawals by 10–25% during bear markets, and bucket strategies that segment the portfolio into short-term (cash/bonds for 1–3 years), medium-term (bonds for 4–10 years), and long-term (equities for 10+ years) buckets.
Rigid withdrawal rates ignore the reality that market conditions change. Dynamic strategies adjust withdrawals based on portfolio performance, extending longevity during downturns while allowing increased spending during strong markets. The guardrails approach sets upper and lower bounds: if the current withdrawal rate exceeds the upper guardrail (e.g., 5.5%), reduce spending by 10%; if it falls below the lower guardrail (e.g., 3.5%), increase spending by 10%. This method has been shown to extend portfolio survival by 3–8 years compared to fixed withdrawal strategies while still allowing spending increases when performance warrants them.
The sequence in which you draw from different account types — taxable brokerage, traditional IRA/401(k), and Roth IRA — significantly affects how long your money lasts. The conventional wisdom is to draw from taxable accounts first (taxed at favorable capital gains rates), then tax-deferred accounts (taxed as ordinary income), and Roth accounts last (tax-free, allowing maximum compounding). However, the optimal sequence depends on your specific tax bracket, future expected income, and RMD requirements. Strategic Roth conversions during low-income years and using tax-deferred withdrawals to fill lower brackets can save $50,000–$200,000 in lifetime taxes compared to a simple sequential drawdown approach.
Inflation is the silent destroyer of retirement plans. At 3% annual inflation, $50,000 in today's purchasing power requires $67,196 in 10 years, $90,306 in 20 years, and $121,363 in 30 years. A retiree who maintains a flat $50,000 annual withdrawal without inflation adjustment has effectively cut their real spending by 42% after 20 years. This is why the inflation adjustment in drawdown calculations is critical — it models the rising dollar amount needed to maintain the same lifestyle. Use this calculator to see how different inflation assumptions affect your projected portfolio longevity and determine whether your savings can sustain your desired standard of living.
Delaying Social Security benefits from age 62 to 70 increases the monthly benefit by approximately 77% (about 8% per year of delay). For retirees with sufficient savings to bridge the gap, delaying Social Security acts as longevity insurance — providing a higher guaranteed inflation-adjusted income stream for life. A retiree who draws down savings more aggressively from 62 to 70 but then receives $3,500/month in Social Security instead of $2,000/month needs far less from their portfolio in later years, significantly reducing the risk of outliving their money. Model both scenarios in this calculator to see which approach produces better outcomes for your specific balance and expected lifespan.
Enter your current savings balance, desired annual withdrawal, expected investment return, and inflation rate to see how many years your money will last under each scenario. Adjust variables to test sensitivity — how does adding 2 more years of work change the outcome? What happens if returns are 2% lower than expected? What if inflation runs 1% higher? Running multiple scenarios builds a realistic range of outcomes rather than relying on a single-point estimate, giving you the confidence to make retirement timing and spending decisions grounded in quantitative analysis rather than guesswork.
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See also: Savings Goal Calculator · Retirement Calculator · FIRE Calculator